'Trade deal will act as a strong trigger for market sentiment, not just for domestic investors but also for FIIs.'
Officials from both India and the US in the recent past have indicated that a "fair deal" will be concluded soon, with Indian officials holding that more formal rounds of talks are not needed.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained in a selling mode in January, withdrawing nearly Rs 36,000 crore (about $3.97 billion) as global uncertainties persisted. Meanwhile, a higher securities transaction tax (STT) proposed in the Union Budget may weigh on overseas investor participation in the near future.
Congress leader Shashi Tharoor is urging the Indian government to take a more proactive role in mediating the escalating conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran, emphasising the impact on India's energy security and regional stability.
The Indian government addressed opposition concerns regarding the West Asia crisis in an all-party meeting, outlining its strategy for ensuring the security of the Indian diaspora, fulfilling energy needs, and maintaining diplomatic relations with key partners. The government also dismissed Pakistan's reported mediation efforts.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi's relationship with US President Donald Trump, alleging that Modi is acting as Trump's 'slave' and jeopardising India's interests on trade, oil and foreign policy.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Customs regimes can lead to labyrinthine legal disputes. Budget 2026 must recognise that an excessively defensive Customs posture can itself become a trade barrier, point out Mukesh Butani and Shankey Agrawal.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty dived sharply by nearly 2 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed a hike in the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on derivatives. Reversing the early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex plunged sharply by 2,370.36 points or 2.88 per cent to slide below the 80,000-mark at 79,899.42 in afternoon trade as the finance minister announced a hike in STT on futures contracts to 0.05 per cent from the current 0.02 per cent.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The rupee, which was the worst performing Asian currency in 2025 and also in January, was the best performing Asian currency on Tuesday.
Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has accused the central government of providing special treatment to gangster Lawrence Bishnoi, who is accused in the Sidhu Moosewala murder case. Mann's criticism comes after Union Minister Amit Shah spoke about gang activities in Punjab.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Shares of brokerage-related companies nosedived 18 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed raising securities transaction tax on commodity futures to 0.05 per cent from 0.02 per cent in the Union Budget 2026-27.
Indore in Madhya Pradesh, Puducherry and Prakasam in Andhra Pradesh also witnessed a tense atmosphere amid confrontation between the party workers.
'Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft have large operations in India and rely on smooth trade and data flows.' 'Restrictions could raise their costs, limit AI chip exports, and complicate their India strategies.'
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets are expected to track Q3 corporate earnings from several blue-chip firms, including TCS and Infosys, while inflation data and global trends would also dictate investors' sentiment, analysts said.
Global risks include a potential delay in the US-India trade agreement, the possibility of a sharp correction in US equity markets, and renewed geopolitical tensions.
Trading pattern in the stock market this week will largely depend on the ongoing Q3 earnings announcement from corporates, global trends, and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Moreover, geopolitical developments and any update on trade negotiations would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted.
Sensitive issues remain. Water sharing of the Ganga and Teesta rivers. Treatment of minorities, particularly Hindus. Border management. Trade imbalances. Connectivity projects.What happens next will shape not just bilateral ties, but the balance of South Asia itself, points out Ramesh Menon.
The rupee witnessed its worst single-day decline in around two months since November 21, 2025, due to demand for dollars among importers, said dealers. The maturing short positions in the non-deliverable forwards market further weighed on the local currency.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
Nepal has reiterated its claim over the Lipulekh territory, stating it is an inseparable part of the country, after India and China agreed to resume border trade through the area. The Nepalese government has incorporated the territory into its official map and Constitution. India has rejected Nepal's claims, asserting they are not based on historical facts or evidence.
The BJP protesters, carrying placards and raising slogans, slammed the Congress and its leader, Rahul Gandhi, calling them "traitors" for allegedly tarnishing the nation's image.
The country's primary capital markets delivered a robust performance in FY26, emerging as a global leader in initial public offerings (IPOs) despite an uncertain environment, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
'For those in for the long haul, this is a God-given opportunity.' 'Your market is falling despite strong fundamentals, and such a clear roadmap has been announced.'
The era where nations thrived through rigid alignments is giving way to an age where the connective State defines power. For India, that era has arrived, points out Dr Nishakant Ojha.
The proposals outlined in Budget 2026-27 represent a carefully crafted, multi-year strategy designed to strengthen India's big bets on the path to Viksit Bharat 2047, says Sameer Gupta.
The US Trade Representative noted that India's average applied tariff rate stood at 17% per cent, the highest of any major world economy.
Enforcement agencies have highlighted risks related to money laundering and terror financing, prompting closer scrutiny of crypto platforms operating in India.
US President Donald Trump signed the National Defence Authorisation Act for Fiscal Year 2026 into law, highlighting broadened engagement with India and addressing the challenge posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region.
India told the UN Security Council that it calls for a pragmatic engagement with the Taliban, underlining that a focus on only punitive measures will ensure a 'business as usual' approach.
'The real story of 2025 is that India officially stopped being a 'market of the future' and started acting as the world's primary economic engine.'
The latest move removes one of the key friction points for visitors, temporary liquor permits, while allowing licensed hotels and restaurants operational flexibility.
As the rupee remains under pressure due to several headwinds and the uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been stepping in only to calm volatility, not to stop the fall.
Equity markets fell on Monday, with benchmark indices recording their worst session in over two months amid caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy announcement and renewed uncertainty over the US-India trade deal. Sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) also weighed on sentiment.
